Decription:

Since the major economic reforms of the 1980s, it has been difficult to obtain independent and regularly updated date information on New ZealandÕs future electricity needs and how these might be met.
To assist provision of this information, the Centre for Advance Engineering (CAE) in 1992 commissioned Leyland Consultants (now part of Sinclair Knight Merz) to undertake some initial modelling work to consider how expected increased demands for electricity could be met. This work was notable in that it not only highlighted New Zealand's vulnerability to electricity shortages in dry years, but also the need for continued investment in additional generation capacity to meet increasing demand for electricity. The work also drew attention to the consequences of continued reliance on Maui gas for electricity generation.

Now ten years and five editions later the message remains the same, except that it is now more urgent. The decline of the Maui gas resource means that New Zealand is now facing an unprecedented situation where, if nothing is done, there is a high risk of electricity shortages over the next few years.

Experience over the last 60 years of public energy supply has shown that it is prudent to plan for a one in 20 year dry year at least. This current review shows that by 2003, there will probably be serious shortages during a one in 15 year dry year, and by 2006 almost any reduction from normal year hydro generation will result in electricity shortages. By 2010, unless there is a change in current generation investment levels and patterns of energy use, there will not be sufficient generation capacity to meet normal-year requirements.

The message from these findings must be that urgent action is required to counter these risks. Unless these issues are dealt with expeditiously, productivity and investment in New Zealand will be jeopardised. The causes of the problems are complex and no single action will resolve them. Uniquely in this edition we propose a new scenario "Kia mahi tahi tatou" - all of us working together - which shows that it is possible to achieve a reliable electricity supply, with the majority coming from renewable resources, if we are prepared to work together as a nation to ease the transition from a simple reliance on Maui gas to a sustainable post-Maui era.

Above all, such a strategy requires that Government, public institutions, private companies and New Zealand society work together to resolve the issues. There may well be a wide variety of opinions on the information contained in this Sixth edition, but debate is important if we are to refine and develop a better understanding of New Zealand's future electricity requirements.